Tracking Signal

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Asprova MRP

Asprova MRP is calculated on the memory requirement, allocate lead time at a high speed. Can achieve material arrangement Just in Time, which is impossible in other MRP system.

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MRP glossary TOP > Demand Forecast > Tracking Signal

The Error in Forecast is usually normally distributed, which can be said to indicate the forecast is favorable. But it is not always normally distributed. Tracking Signal is used to determine the larger deviation (in both plus and minus) of Error in Forecast, and is calculated by the following formula:

Tracking Signal = Accumulated Forecast Errors / Mean Absolute Deviation

For example, when Errors (F1 and F2) in Forecast occur, each Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) is 45. But, the Tracking Signal of F1 is 0.22, while that of F2 is 6, which shows the forecast of F1 is better and, as for that of F2, the actual data should be analyzed and its forecast model should be reconsidered.

Related term: Error in Forecast

Reference：JIT Business Research Mr. Hirano Hiroyuki

Time Series Analysis | Demand Forecast | Trend